Do Not Trust All Simulation Studies of Telecommunication Networks

Since the birth of ARPANET and the first commercial applications of computer networks, through explosion of popularity of the Internet and wireless communications, we have witnessed increasing dependence of our civilization on information services of telecommunication networks. Their efficiency and reliability have become critically important for the well-being and prosperity of societies as well as for their security. In this situation, the significance of performance evaluation studies of current and future networks cannot be underestimated. Increasing complexity of networks has resulted in their performance evaluation studies being predominantly conducted by means of stochastic discrete-event simulation. This paper is focused on the issue of credibility of the final results obtained from simulation studies of telecommunication networks. Having discussed the basic conditions of credibility, we will show that, unfortunately, one cannot trust the majority of simulation results published in technical literature. We conclude with general guidelines for resolving this credibility crisis.